Apple julkisti kolmannen neljänneksen tuloksensa 21.10.2014. Morningstarin Brian Colellon näkemys tuloksesta ja Applen tilanteesta:
Apple AAPL
Markkinahinta 99,76 USD
Morningstarin arvioima käypä arvo: 93 USD
Hinta/käypä hinta 1,07=hieman ylihinnoiteltu
Kilpailuetu ("moat"): Kapea
Apple reported strong September quarterly results. More importantly, it provided a forecast for the December quarter that was relatively in line with our expectations and matched the hype that the firm is in the midst of a tremendous iPhone launch. We will likely raise our fair value estimate for Apple, but by no more than 10%, and view shares as fully valued today. We’ll maintain our narrow economic moat rating. (moat=vallihauta; kilpailuetu)
Apple sold 39 million iPhone units in the September quarter, up 16% from the year-ago quarter, while average selling prices also rose 4% thanks to strong sales of newer iPhones during the last 11 days of the quarter. Mac was the pleasant surprise, with revenue up 18% annually, far outpacing the overall PC industry. IPad sales continue to lag, however, with revenue down 14% from the year-ago quarter. Apple also bought back another $17 billion of stock.
Apple expects revenue in the all-important December quarter to be in the range of $63.5 billion to $66.5 billion, which, at the midpoint, would represent 13% annual growth. We estimate that the forecast implies that iPhone unit sales will be in the low 60-million-unit range, ahead of our prior expectations. However, Apple expects currency headwinds and higher production costs to keep gross margin pegged in the 38% range.
Meanwhile, Apple will also plow some of its excess cash back into the business, as operating expenses should rise 24% annually. In turn, Apple’s implied EPS guidance met, rather than exceeded, Street expectations. We remain confident in Apple’s narrow economic moat and positive moat trend ratings, as switching costs continue to increase with every new product and service Apple successfully delivers. Yet, in our view, the December forecast might be a microcosm of Apple’s long-term financials—premium products sold to a loyal customer base, partially offset by higher costs to deliver these popular devices.
We continue to believe that Apple’s long-term success hinges on making repeat sales to current iPhone users, yet we remain impressed at Apple’s ability to attract first-time smartphone customers, as 50% and 25% of Apple’s iPhone 5s sales into China and the U.S., respectively, were to first-time smartphone buyers. Further, while sales into th e U.S. were up 17% and Western Europe up 20%, iPhone sales into emerging markets with lower overall smartphone penetration were even stronger (Latin America and Middle East up over 50%, Central and Eastern Europe more than doubling). We view these figures as good signs that Apple’s loyal customer base could grow over time, thus allowing the firm to see solid long-term growth even as the smartphone market, and certainly the high-end of the market, matures.
Another encouraging sign is Apple's comments that only 20% of iPhone sales in China are made in combination with a wireless carrier subsidy, which should help alleviate some concerns that a crackdown on subsidies could provide material headwinds to Apple in the region. All the while, iPhone ASPs rose by 4% annually to $603, and we estimate that Apple’s ASP on new models has reached about $800, thanks to the higher-priced iPhone 6 Plus. Yet Apple’s projected gross margin range of 37.5% to 38.5% indicates that higher-priced devices will still come with high production costs, most likely around screen size, memory storage, and more advanced sensors being added to each phone. Apple has done a good job of reducing these costs subsequent to new product launches, but we still would have anticipated Apple setting a higher gross margin bar for the upcoming reporting period.
Mac sales were the highlight of the quarter, up 18% on a revenue basis and 21% on a unit basis. Better yet, emerging market Mac sales were up 46% annually (54% in China) as Apple continues to increase the size of its installed base. As we think about Apple’s ability to strengthen its narrow economic moat by raising switching costs associated with its various devices, stellar Mac growth is a terrific sign that more and more users are fully adopting the entire Apple ecosystem, and will likely stick with the iOS platform for mobile devices for years to come.
By the same token, we’re not yet concerned that slumping iPad unit sales (12.5% annual decline) are putting Apple’s economic moat at risk. While large screen smartphones are likely cannibalizing tablet sales (and this dynamic may get worse before it gets better now that Apple has launched large-screen iPhones), the other headwind to iPad growth, in our view, is that tablet replacement cycles appear to be longer than what we would have previously expected. We don’t yet see clear-cut signs that tablet customers are fleeing the iPad for other devices in a manner that would run counter to our moat thesis.
Finally, the most eye-popping figures from Apple’s quarter report, in our view, pertain to total operating expenses (R&D plus SG&A) rose from $4.45 billion in the June quarter to $4.84 billion in September and are expected to rise to a range of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion in the December quarter. R&D rose 44% from the year-ago quarter, while SG&A rose 18% over the same period. Given Apple’s secrecy, we have little visibility into the firm’s R &D efforts. However, given the firm’s success in delivering new and innovative hardware, silicon and software over the years, we consider it a wise use of cash for Apple to reinvest in its business to generate long-term growth, rather than a troubling sign of operational inefficiency.
