Morningstarin analyytikko Rob Hales, CFA, analysoi UPM-Kymmenen kolmannen neljänneksen tuloksen tuoreeltaan. Analyytikkojemme näkemyksen mukaan UPM:n osakkeet ovat yliarvostettuja.
"After reviewing UPM-Kymmene’s third-quarter results, we are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 14, along with our no-moat rating. We do not think UPM has a moat, as the company has historically struggled to earn its cost of capital, and we don’t expect that to change going forward, given the secular decline in European paper demand. At current levels, shares look overvalued.
Compared with last year’s third quarter, sales were up 5% and EBITDA was flat. The company benefited from a weaker euro, although the positive effect was hindered by the company’s currency hedges. The hedges will roll off at the end of the year, implying a potentially stronger currency tailwind in 2016 if exchange rates remain around current levels.
The biorefining segment was the strongest performer in the quarter, primarily as a result of a weaker euro, which increased pulp prices in euro terms. Compared with the prior-year period, sales increased 15%, and the company's EBITDA margin rose significantly to 29%. The Raflatac segment also performed well, with the weaker euro augmenting a solid increase in volume.
UPM’s paper business bears the brunt of the company’s currency hedges. EBITDA fell 51% for UPM Paper ENA, the company's Europe and North America segment; although the segment's sales were similar in volume to those of the year-ago period, the impact of higher pulp costs was magnified by the currency hedges. The company reports that demand continues to fall for graphic paper in Europe and magazine paper in North America. UPM has taken action to address this issue, including permanently reducing its European production capacity by 800,000 metric tons in 2015. However, industry overcapacity remains, particularly in the European graphic paper market.
